| Updated:2024-05-04 07:42 Views:99 |
Ahead of UFC Sao Paulo, let's look into the Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby odds, pick and prediction for the co-main event on Saturday.
UFC Sao Paulo was supposed to mark the third time (including their appearance on the Contender Series) that both Bonfim brothers were in action together. However, on Friday, the slightly older brother of the pair – Ismael Bonfim – came in overweight for his main-card opener with Vinc Pichel, and the fight was scrapped.
However, the younger Bonfim remains on the card, and he's the biggest favorite among all UFC Sao Paulo fighters.
Gabriel is 15-0 as a professional, including a perfect 2-0 in the UFC. He needed just over two minutes of total time between those fights while picking up quick submissions in both.
However, Dalby represents a big step up in competition. The 38-year-old is a veteran of 11 UFC fights across two stints with the company – and has never been finished as a professional fighter.
Oddsmakers expect Bonfim to rise to the occasion and have installed him as more than a -600 favorite across the industry.
Let's dig into the tape and see if those odds are justified – or if perhaps the hype around Bonfim has gone a bit too far.
Tale of the TapeBonfimDalbyRecord15-022-4-1Avg. Fight Time2:0513:53Height6-foot-q5-foot-11Weight (pounds)170.5 pounds170.5 poundsReach (inches)72"74"StanceOrthodoxOrthodoxDate of birth8/20/199711/16/1984Sig Strikes Per Minute6.083.93SS Accuracy37C%SS Absorbed Per Minute4.803.39SS Defense66R%Take Down Avg4.801.19TD Acc1001%TD Def100b%Submission Avg7.20.1Both Bonfim brothers – but especially Gabriel – have made quite the splash through their first few fights in the UFC octagon.
Gabriel got his call to the Contender Series feeder system following his first-round submission win for the LFA welterweight title, and he has repeated the feat three times between the Contender Series and UFC proper.
His 15-0 professional record has all been via stoppage with 12 submissions and three knockouts. It's hard to find tape on his early bouts, but I'd wager at least one or two of those knockouts came via strikes on the ground as well.
Which isn't to say he lacks ability on the feet. Bonfim throws hard, fast and often, using a sharp jab to get into striking range. His left hook looks like something you'd see outside of a bar following $1 Beer Night, a wide arcing strike thrown from the hip with his chin in the air.
However, his power and athleticism cover some of the technical deficiencies.
Not that we have a ton of tape on his striking – with three first-round submissions in his UFC/Contender Series tenure. Every striking exchange I've seen him in has ended one of two ways: Bonfim uses strikes to close the distance and secure a takedown, or he clips his opponent and they take desperation shots to avoid getting knocked out.
The latter scenario is where he especially shines since he's constantly hunting for guillotines and front chokes. He'll give his opponents space to work back to their feet – allowing them to seal their demise by exposing their neck while trying to wrestle up to a leg.
DANISH DYNAMITE! ???@DalbyMMA faces Gabriel Bonfim at #UFCSaoPaulo this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/1yP8vUaR9q
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) November 2, 2023
With all that said, Dalby is a considerably better and more experienced grappler than any of Bonfim's past opponents. His record of never being finished is made even more impressive by his past opponents – highly skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts Warrley Alves and Claudio Silva, among others.
Dalby doesn't have great takedown defense, but his get-ups and grappling defense are high-level.
Dalby was able to instantly get up from under Alves multiple times while staying safe (once) before eventually escaping (thrice) takedowns from Silva.
My biggest question prior to watching this tape was how Dalby got to his feet. Was he taking risks and leaving his neck exposed, or using more advanced technique?
UFC Props: 5 Juicy Long-Shot Picks for Sao PauloRead nowAfter watching the tape, the answer was clearly Option B.
Dalby eschewed opportunities to escape when he didn't have the position he wanted, showing excellent patience. Most applicably here, he (almost) always made sure to secure an overhook before working to his base, limiting his opponent's ability to look for attacks.
That will be crucial against Bonfim, who capitalizes on sloppy escapes from his opponents to find his patented guillotines and D'Arce chokes.
Still, you can't win a fight by merely surviving the grappling exchanges. For Dalby to have a shot here, he'll need to win the striking battles against the younger, more explosive Bonfim.
That's a big ask, though Dalby has 2.5 inches in reach, cardio and cleaner technique working in his favor.
Bonfim vs. Dalby PickWhile the analysis above comes across as mostly favorable to Dalby, there's a reason this fight is such long odds. I expect Dalby to fare better in the grappling than they imply, but it's hard to see him outclassing the younger, faster, more powerful Bonfim on the feet.
That is, unless this fight goes long.
Dalby has never been finished, and he is known for his impressive cardio. Bonfim has seen a third round just twice in 15 fights. Bonfim also has an overly aggressive style that takes a major toll on his gas tank, and it could leave him struggling if he can't finish Dalby early.
All of which makes Dalby a solid live-betting candidate, should he survive the early onslaught. However, if he drops both of the early rounds – or a 10-8 in the first round – he probably lacks the finishing ability to win the fight, even if he is the fresher man late.
He could certainly take the third round against a gassed Bonfim, though. Which is why betting Dalby's point spread at DraftKings is my favorite angle here. The 3.5-point line means he needs to win only one of three rounds (barring a 10-8 against him) to cover the spread. Of course, any Dalby win would also cash this ticket.
I'll take that at +255 for about half a unit while keeping an eye on the live odds for an additional sprinkle on Dalby. The fight to do the distance at +200 is also interesting, given the durability Dalby has shown throughout his career – though I'd hate to lose that bet on a late Dalby finish.
The Pick: Nicholas Dalby +3.5 point spread (+255 at DraftKings)
