| Updated:2024-05-03 09:33 Views:207 |
The second round of the 2023 US Open concludes on Thursday, as the deluge of high-volume match days begins to slow once the day's action concludes.
There's value to be had though in the multitude of second-round contests on Thursday. Let's preview a pair of them from the women's draw. Find my top US Open predictions and picks below.
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US Open Odds, Picks & PredictionsMartina Trevisan (+700) vs Marketa Vondrousova (-1250)1 p.m. ET
It's odd to look at incredibly low totals and find value in a match that doesn't involve Iga Swiatek, but given the matchup here, it's a prime opportunity to do just that.
Marketa Vondrousova is perfectly capable of posting lopsided set wins and has on many occasions in the past — especially against lower-level competition. Some may point to the Italian being a better competitor, but on hard courts with that heavy-topspin style, I'm not convinced.
The Wimbledon champion has the rigid consistency to stick with Martina Trevisan from the baseline, can flatten out her groundstrokes much more effectively, is in much better form and — most importantly — has improved that first serve in a relatively big way in the past few months.
That makes me a tad less concerned about her own service games and Trevisan keeping things close just by virtue of being a solid returner.
This number isn't anything that calls for a massive bet, especially with Vondrousova's tendency to take a two-to-three-game stretch off mentally, but I certainly feel that giving Trevisan six games (or a set) in this contest is a bit generous.
Pick: Under 18.5 (-130 via DraftKings)
3 p.m. ET
An underdog I really like for Thursday's action is Petra Martic, who takes on Marie Bouzkova.
I was impressed with Martic's opening match against one of the more overvalued players of the season in Tatjana Maria. Now she'll have even more chances to work her way into return games against the lighter-serving Czech.
Bouzkova relied on a poor showing from Ashlyn Krueger, who was able to dictate play but horrendous on break point chances. She simply had no way to beat her other than trying to bash her way through from the baseline.
Martic shouldn't have that problem. Her backhand slice is incredible and she can follow it into net with ease. Bouzkova may be a strong passer, but when you pull her off court, you have to be able to move in and take her legs away, as she can run balls down and put them in play as well as anyone.
Martic also holds the advantage on serve here, which should provide her a few extra cheap points against a tricky returner.
I'm not entirely sold on Bouzkova just yet. Outside of her win in Cincinnati against Jessica Pegula, her victories don't jump off the page and her first round match was far from inspiring.
I'll back the better server with more variety to send her packing.
Pick: Martic Moneyline (+142 via FanDuel)
