| Updated:2024-05-03 03:00 Views:121 |
The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms have targeted three top selections for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs.
The betting models are all three running backs that figure to play a big part in tonight's game: 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco and 49ers running back Elijah Mitchell.
We also have the public's favorite picks for this matchup. Our algorithms for the Super Bowl are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.
49ers vs. Chiefs Most Valuable Prop BetsElijah Mitchell to record over 0.5 receiving yards (+525)Isiah Pacheco to rush 16 or more times (-105)Christian McCaffrey to rush 18 or fewer times (+105)49ers vs. ChiefsWhere's The Value?
The models simulate thousands of iterations of this particular matchups — with roster adjustments, injuries and other quantitative and qualitative factors in mind — and project an average figure for each player's props.
Mitchell, for instance, is projected to record on average at least one receiving yard through thousands of simulations of this game. That gives his prop at +525 roughly a 30% expected value, according to our internal algorithms.
In the long run, if you bet on these sorts of bets, you should return 30 cents on every dollar wagered over the long run. That market-best line is at Caesars.
Meanwhile, the two rushing attempt props involve the two starting running backs. Our models are more bullish that Pacheco will get more touches than the market expects, projecting him at 17.2 touches on average tonight on a 15.5 rush attempt total.
McCaffrey is projected at 17.8 rushes on an 18.5, plus-money total.
Both market-best lines are at DraftKings.
