| Updated:2024-05-03 01:42 Views:147 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday, April 6 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
On Saturday, the Dallas Stars head to the United Center to take on the Chicago Blackhawks for the fourth and final time this season. Dallas will look to sweep the season series.
While the Blackhawks have nothing to play for at this point, the Stars sit two points behind the New York Rangers in the race for the Presidents’ Trophy as of Friday afternoon.
Let’s dig into the NHL odds and make a Stars vs. Blackhawks prediction.
Dallas StarsThe Stars are riding an eight-game winning streak and have lost just two of their past 15 games. Trade deadline addition Chris Tanev has fit in nicely on Dallas’ blue line and has the Stars looking like legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
There are no questions surrounding the Stars’ potent offense, and since acquiring the former Calgary Flame, they’ve defended at an elite level according to the underlying numbers.
Since Tanev’s debut, Dallas’ 2.16 xGA/60 and 23.55 SCA/60 at 5-on-5 rank third in the NHL. The Stars’ 2.3 GA/60 over that stretch is also the league’s third-best mark, and their 24.94 SA/60 ranks second best in the NHL.
Offensively, Dallas is tied for sixth in the NHL with 2.8 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 across that span. The Stars’ 56.50 xGF% at 5-on-5 is the league’s third-best mark. Jason Robertson, Dallas’ leading scorer, has been red hot with 12 points across the team’s past 10 games.
With a matchup against the Colorado Avalanche on the horizon and Jake Oettinger having started the Stars’ past three games, they’ll likely turn to backup goaltender Scott Wedgewood on Saturday. He has seen plenty of action this season, going 16-6-5 with a 2.84 GAA, .901 SV% and -7.40 GSAx.
Chicago BlackhawksThe Blackhawks – who sit at 31st in the league standings — have quietly played much better hockey of late. Over the past month, Chicago is over .500 with a 7-6-0 record. The Blackhawks’ .538 points percentage ranks 17th in the NHL.
Chicago’s underlying numbers suggest this turnaround likely stems from improved defensive play. The Blackhawks’ 2.56 xGA/60 at 5-on-5 over that stretch ranks 20th in the NHL. Although that number is nothing to write home about, it does represent significant progress.
While Chicago’s power play has helped carry the load offensively of late, the Blackhawks continue to struggle to generate production at even strength. Their 2.17 xGF/60 at 5-on-5 over the past month is fourth worst in the NHL. As a result, they’re playing to a 45.92 xGF% — indicating it’s not as if Chicago has driven play at even strength despite its uptick in victories.
Most importantly, Connor Bedard continues to impress. In 14 games in March, the 18-year-old posted 17 points. He’s up to 58 points in just 61 games this season.
Petr Mrázek should get the start between the pipes for the Blackhawks. While his numbers aren’t strong — a GAA of 3.03 and a .907 SV% — his GSAx is just -0.30. He’s held his own given the circumstances and is capable of stealing a game now and again.
Stars vs BlackhawksBetting Pick & Prediction
I tend to target the over in these types of mismatches, and I'll be doing so again here.
While the Stars have been defending at a high level lately, they've trended toward higher-scoring games against inferior opponents.
Recent contests against the Arizona Coyotes (twice) and San Jose Sharks have featured seven, six and nine total goals. Once Dallas builds up a lead, it naturally tends to concede some chances, which should be the case Saturday.
If Wedgewood does earn the start, I could even see total jumping to 6.5, so I'll take Over 6 at even money.
Pick: Over 6 (+100 · Play to -110)
Saturday, April 63:30 p.m. ETESPN+
Stars Odds-350Blackhawks Odds+275Over / Under6-105o / -115uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.
