| Updated:2024-05-02 16:56 Views:87 |
The PWHL has a busy weekend with three games, two of which are at neutral sites, which I think could potentially lead to some value on the board. Let’s dive right in with my PWHL preview and best bets.
If you’re new to the Professional Women’s Hockey League, definitely take a look over our team-by-team betting overview from earlier this week.
PWHL Best Bets (March 16-17)New York at Minnesota — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ETWe’ll start with the lone game actually taking place in the natural home stadium, as Minnesota does indeed play host to New York. Minnesota has won three straight games and now sits in a tie for first, but the turnaround is somewhat quick by PWHL standards, having just played on Wednesday. New York, on the other hand, has lost five straight, but has had nearly a week off, having last played in Boston last Sunday.
When these two teams last played, on March 3 in New York, New York was a slight favorite, coming in at -119 on the moneyline. Minnesota pulled the slight upset, though, paying out their own -104 moneyline in a 2-0 win.
Based on how the books have been weighing home ice, along with how the teams two have played since their last meeting, I’d project Minnesota to be about -150 on the moneyline and (-1.5 +200) on the puck line. That would make New York around +120, which is mildly interesting given the rest advantage it will have along with the success New York has been able to have on the road, but overall I’ll be eyeing the other two games for my best bets.
If the books hang a bigger number, like +140 on New York, I might take them on the moneyline if I can verify Schroeder in net and not Levy. If Schroeder is in net, I’ll also take a look at under 4.5, as these are two of the top three defenses in the league.
Ottawa vs. Boston — Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit)This is the first of two neutral site games this weekend, and I’m very curious to see if the books realize these are neutral site or not. I’ve seen multiple times books open lines for MLB and NBA games at neutral sites as if they were standard games, only to adjust once it’s bet. I think if we’re ready to hop on this at open we could see a nice edge.
For a neutral site, this should be around a pick ‘em, -110 on both sides. Both teams have collected 20 points over 16 games played, and while Ottawa is a bit better by goal differential, Boston came into the season with the more ballyhooed of the rosters.
The good news for bettors is that if the books incorrectly assume this game is in Boston, Ottawa is indeed the side I want to be on. I mentioned in my team-by-team look that Ottawa has been incredibly unlucky to be 0-5 in overtime, and that should hide some of its value moving forward. Boston, on the other hand, is a team I am looking to consistently fade as it is the worst team in the league by my measures.
It all leads perfectly to an Ottawa moneyline on Saturday, especially if the books mistakenly price this as a Boston home game. I would play Ottawa to -125 on the moneyline, which will likely be in play even if the books account for the neutral site.
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Toronto vs Montreal — Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET (at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh)First of all, this should be an awesome game. I’m a little bummed that they robbed Montreal home fans of one of their rivalry games, but given that Pittsburgh is already looming as a potential expansion city, the atmosphere should still be electric.
The even better news: I once again like the “road” team, so if the books treat this as a Montreal home game, I’ll be all over Toronto. Even if they do price this as a neutral site, Toronto shouldn’t be more than -120 on the moneyline. I would take them to -135, though.
Toronto has won all three matchups between these two sides, including a 3-0 victory in their most recent matchup just last Saturday. I’ve noticed the books do react strongly to single-game results, so there’s a chance that if they sniff out both the neutral site and the head-to-head results that we could see something around -135, but I doubt it.
Personally, the head-to-head matters a bit in my cap, but overall I just see Toronto as the much stronger team than Montreal. Come postseason, Montreal has some intrigue given the top-level talent it has and the potential for increased ice time for its best of the best, but the depth of Toronto is simply too much for Montreal in the regular season, and that has proven true so far.
PWHL Best Bets This WeekendOttawa moneyline to -125Toronto moneyline to -135
