| Updated:2024-05-02 00:02 Views:68 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins on Tuesday, April 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
There is still so much to figure out over the final few days of the 2024 NHL season. Among those details that require sorting is who will reign supreme over the Atlantic Division. A win against the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday guarantees the Boston Bruins their second consecutive title and third division crown in five years.
But the Senators aren't the pushovers they were earlier in the campaign. Ottawa has gone 8-5-0 since March 23, knocking off some of the best teams in the league in the process.
With both teams coming into this intra-divisional contest on the second night of a back-to-back, goaltender usage is paramount. However, several other factors point toward a potential upset at TD Garden.
Ottawa SenatorsAs they typically do, the Senators have reserved their most triumphant efforts for the end of the season. Year after year, Ottawa waits until it's eliminated from postseason contention before the team turns it on, a trend that spilled into 2024.
The only triumph left to be had is a clash against the Bruins, a victory that bettors can share in the glory.
The Sens have put forth some dynamic efforts lately. Outplaying three of their past five opponents, Ottawa has tilted the ice in its favor versus the top teams in the division. They put up an expected goals-for rating of 61.1% against the Florida Panthers, following that up with another sterling 59.4% game score versus the Tampa Bay Lightning.
All told, their cumulative 52.5% expected goals-for rating across the five-game sample illustrates the Sens' vastly improved efforts to end the season.
Structured defensive zone play is the foundation of the Sens' recent revival. Just once over the five-game stretch has an opponent exceeded 10 high-danger chances. Moreover, Ottawa is limiting foes to an insignificant 7.4 opportunities per game. Scoring chances have been even more scarce with the Sens holding teams to an average of 16.6, with no opponent surpassing 21.
Although it may be tempting to take a stance against Anton Forsberg, the Sens' backup netminder has looked exceptional lately. Over his last two starts, Forsberg has stopped 43 of 45 shots for a 95.6% save percentage. Combined with their stout defensive efforts, goals will be hard to come by for the Bruins.
Boston BruinsHeading into the season finale, the Bruins have a one-point lead over the Panthers for top spot in the Atlantic Division.
The only way for the B's to clinch the division is with a win over the Sens on Tuesday. Otherwise, they will need some help from the Toronto Maple Leafs to secure home-ice advantage through the opening two rounds of the playoffs.
Sadly, the analytics are not in the Bruins' favor. When the team needed it most, Boston put forth one of its worst efforts of the season. The Bruins were trounced on Monday night, spending the entire evening chasing the puck against the Washington Capitals. Their 25.2% expected goals-for rating was easily the Bruins' worst game score of the campaign, punctuating a disastrous stretch.
Boston has outplayed its opponents just once over its past six games. That trend is even more revealing when we extend it further back, with the Bruins posting an expected goals-for rating below 50.0% in 10 of 12. Their cumulative 38.9% expected goals-for rating across that sample, puts them third-last in the league.
Further, Jim Montgomery elected to start Jeremy Swayman on Monday night. Although Linus Ullmark remains an elite option, his metrics over his last 13 starts are uninspired. The Bruins netminder has posted a save percentage below 90.0% in six of those 13 outings.
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Betting Pick & Prediction
There may be something left to play for, but that doesn't mean the Bruins will show up. We are looking at them as ongoing regression candidates, and that's augmented against a scrappy Sens side with an appealing betting price.
The analytics point toward another potential upset on Tuesday, but we wouldn't rule out this game getting sorted in overtime.
We're backing the Sens at +170 or better, with the floor on the overtime play set at +350.
Picks: Senators (+185 at bet365) | 60-minute tie (+380 at FanDuel)Bet the Tie Instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip!
Tuesday, April 167 p.m. ETESPN+
Senators Odds+180Bruins Odds-220Over / Under6-105o / -115uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.
