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Here's everything you need to know about the Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings on Saturday, February 24 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
After weeks of struggling, the Los Angeles Kings have finally turned a corner with their recent performance. Between Dec. 28 and Jan. 30, the Kings dropped 14 of 16 decisions, sending them in a tailspin down the standings and costing former head coach Todd McLellan his job. Los Angeles has responded by winning six of eight ahead of Saturday's tilt against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Kings can't afford to look past a Ducks squad that has gone 5-4-1 over their past 10, which has been one of their most productive stretches of the season. Moreover, Los Angeles is coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Nashville Predators, leaving the door open for a potential Ducks upset at Crypto.com Arena.
Anaheim DucksLike many young teams, consistency continues to be a limiting factor for the Ducks. Anaheim has mixed elite performances with absolute duds over its past 10, making it hard to get a read on which team shows up night after night. Still, there are a few indicators supporting that the Ducks should be in tip-top shape against the Kings.
First, Ducks' goaltenders aren't as bad as they've looked recently. Opponents have hung a crooked number on the Ducks in four of their past six, totaling 30 goals over that stretch. The Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres were the only teams to record fewer than five goals in a game, with the Toronto Maple Leafs setting the high mark with nine. But things don't look nearly as bad when we reconcile those performances with the team's defensive efforts.
Over that six-game sample, all but two of the Ducks' opponents were held to 10 high-danger chances or fewer. While still slightly inflated, it's worth noting two things. Four of those outings were on the road, and the Ducks' season average for high-danger chances allowed per game is 9.7, putting them right on par with their usual performances.
Second, Anaheim has seen a boost in scoring. Over that same stretch, the Ducks have recorded three or more goals in four of six. Anaheim has totaled 18 goals across that sample, with 11 of those coming at 5-on-5.
If the Ducks can sustain their current offensive form with improved play from their netminders, more wins will inevitably follow.
Los Angeles KingsAnalytically, the Kings still stack up as one of the best teams in the league; however, their lack of sustainable success could point to more profound issues. Since the start of the season, Los Angeles ranks as the fourth-best team in expected goals-for rating.
The Kings' 55.4% benchmark puts them ahead of many top contenders, including the Colorado Avalanche, Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins. But their inability to match that standard with their actual goals-for rating suggests that personnel issues could limit the Kings' success. More specifically, Los Angeles doesn't have the right players in its system.
Take their last six games as a small sample. Over that stretch, the Kings have scored more than one goal at 5-on-5 just twice, failing to record a goal in three of those outings. That ineffectiveness is also reflected in the team's season-long metrics. Los Angeles is scoring on just 7.3% of shots, ranking fourth lowest in the NHL.
The Kings may have benefitted from a head coaching boost, but it's not expected to yield long-term results. They continue to rely too heavily on special teams scoring, and if not for resurgent goaltending, the Kings still wouldn't have too many wins to show for their efforts.
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Ducks vs. KingsBetting Pick & Prediction
Anaheim remains an island of misfits, looking to build a collective identity with its current nucleus. We've seen flashes of how good the Ducks can be, and that's illustrated by their recent sample.
Although the Kings remain an analytics darling, there are more concerning issues revealed in their underlying metrics. Los Angeles doesn't have the skill to capitalize on its solid systems, and a new coach hasn't unlocked the key to renewed offensive output.
We give the edge to the Ducks in this one, but we also can't discount the Kings' defense-first approach or home-ice advantage. On that basis, we're betting this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout. Any number better than +370 will do.
Pick: 60-Minute Tie (+410 via FanDuel; Play to +370)
Saturday, Feb. 2410:30 p.m. ETESPN+
Ducks Odds+230Kings Odds-280Over / Under6-110o / -110uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.
