| Updated:2024-05-01 16:53 Views:162 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche on Sunday, February 18 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Colorado is going through a rough patch, but Arizona has been even worse, so the question is which team will rebound Sunday. Let's preview the upcoming contest and offer a Coyotes vs. Avalanche prediction.
Arizona CoyotesAt their height, the Coyotes were on track to make the playoffs for just the second time since 2012. They had a 19-14-2 record through Dec. 29, which put them in the Western Conference's second wild-card spot. However, Arizona has gone 4-12-2 since and is struggling through an eight-game losing streak.
Looking at the Coyotes' performance in 2023 versus 2024 is like examining two different teams, and nowhere is that more evident than with their goaltending. Arizona's success through its first 35 games was thanks to a solid 2.83 goals allowed per game, which ranked 11th in the league. Since the start of the calendar year, the Coyotes have plummeted to an average of 3.83, putting them ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Netminder Connor Ingram has fallen hard during Arizona's struggles, but Karel Vejmelka — who is projected to start Sunday because Ingram is hurt — has fared even worse, posting a 1-6-0 record, 4.52 GAA and .872 save percentage over his last nine outings. What are the odds Vejmelka is going to be able to hold up against Colorado's superstars given that level of play?
Well, the Coyotes better hope Vejmelka picks Sunday to rebound, because goal support hasn't been Arizona's strength. The Coyotes are 26th offensively this campaign with 2.87 goals per game, and that drops to 2.44 if you look at just their 2024 contests. They do have Clayton Keller, who has provided 21 goals and 49 points through 53 appearances, but no other member of the squad has even reached 35 points.
Colorado AvalancheIn contrast to Arizona, Colorado has four players with over 40 points, including one of the league's best offensive defensemen Cale Makar (13 goals, 60 points) and the fantastic forward duo of Mikko Rantanen (29 goals, 70 points) and Nathan MacKinnon (32 goals, 89 points). It's worth emphasizing just how big of an edge that is: MacKinnon alone has more points than Arizona's top two forwards combined.
Still, the Avalanche have vulnerabilities. Alexandar Georgiev has left something to be desired this campaign with his 2.94 GAA and .897 save percentage through 45 appearances, and he's done even worse recently, posting a 3.73 GAA and an .884 save percentage over his past three contests.
The squad also has mediocre scoring depth. When the top line goes cold, Colorado has trouble compensating. That was the case when MacKinnon endured a rare three-game scoring drought from Feb. 6-10, which unsurprising resulted in the Avalanche dropping all three games.
Poor goaltending and questionable depth typically aren't a recipe for success, but MacKinnon, Rantanen and Makar are so good that Colorado has an outstanding 33-18-4 record despite those issues. With MacKinnon starting to heat up again — he has four assists over his past two contests — the Avalanche are set up to show Arizona why their offense is tied for second with 3.69 goals per game.
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Coyotes vs. AvalancheBetting Pick & Prediction
Eventually all streaks, good and bad, come to an end. But I don't foresee the Coyotes' losing streak coming to an end Sunday. Putting out a struggling goaltender in Vejmelka and backing him up with a weak defense (Arizona ranks 24th with an xGA/60 of 3.27) and ice cold offense seems like a recipe for disaster against a star-studded line like the one Colorado features.
For that reason, I feel comfortable recommending Colorado on the puck line, where the spread is 1.5 goals in Arizona's favor.
If you want an alternative recommendation, you could also give some consideration to the Over of 6.5. It's not unreasonable to believe this will be a high-scoring affair given the strength of the Avalanche's offense coupled with the poor goaltending on both sides of the ice.
Pick: Colorado Avalanche puck line (+105 via FanDuel; Play to -105)
Sunday, Feb. 186 p.m. ETESPN+
Coyotes Odds+195Avalanche Odds-240Over / Under6.5+100o / -122uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.
