| Updated:2024-04-30 09:39 Views:172 |
Man City look to keep pace with Arsenal and Liverpool in the title race when they host Everton.
City are finally fully healthy for the first time this season and are clicking on all cylinders after a resounding 3-1 win at Brentford on Monday. The Cityzens are still the odds-on favorites to win the Premier League, but facing an underrated team like Everton is always tricky, which they found out in the previous meeting, going down a goal early.
Everton are currently in the relegation zone because of their 10-point deduction, but this team really should be challenging for a finish in the top half of the table. Sean Dyche has Everton as the eighth-best team by expected goal differential and they have caused problems for a lot of the top teams in England.
Let's get into my Man City vs Everton prediction.
Man CityWith Kevin De Bruyne finally healthy Pep Guardiola was the world at his disposal from a tactical perspective. What he has done is switched Manchester City to a diamond midfield with Alvarez acting as the No. 10, De Bruyne and Foden acting as double No. 8s and Rodri as the holding midfielder.
That allows Kevin De Bruyne to operate in between the lines and it also allows Foden to do the same. With all the attention being paid to De Bruyne, Foden has flourished. For most of the season, Manchester City didn't have a true right winger since Mahrez left, so they've been having to use Foden out wide, but he is truly at his best when he's playing in between the lines.
So, it makes it really hard for opposing teams to try and either press them or be effective in a low block. Brentford were able to do it for an extended period of time, but eventually Manchester City got through with Foden for a hat trick.
Manchester City have shown some vulnerabilities when playing teams that primarily play in transition or are good on set pieces. Brentford created a couple golden chances on the break and off of corners against Manchester City. Everton are the most efficient team off of both corners and set pieces, while Manchester City are 11th in xG per set piece allowed.
Everton did a fantastic job of being active pressing out of their mid-block and not allowing Tottenham to play through the middle. It’s something they’ve been doing at an elite level under Dyche all season long because Everton have allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League and have forced the most high turnovers. They did a fantastic job defending against Manchester City in the previous meeting as well. Even though Manchester City scored three goals and created 2.4 expected goals, one of their goals came off a penalty and another came from outside the box. For the match, City had 22 shots and only 1.6 non-penalty expected goals without a big scoring chance.
Everton’s defense hasn’t been as great lately mainly because they are in a difficult part of the schedule. The Toffees haven’t held an opponent under one expected goal since their match against Burnley on December 16th. Because they’ve tried to play more aggressive out of possession, it has had a negative effect on their defense, but even with playing more aggressive they are still fourth in npxG allowed.
Everton did create over two expected goals against Tottenham, but basically all of their huge chances came off corners, which they are elite at. Everton lead the Premier League with 10.4 expected goals off of corners, which will be one of their only advantages against Manchester City.
They have played well against the top teams in the Premier League, as they've won the expected goals battle in four of their seven matches against the 'Big Six'.
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Man City vs EvertonPrediction
This line is way too high for a team that has the caliber of Everton out possession. Tottenham scored an early goal on an uncharacteristic defensive lapse, but after that goal Spurs really weren’t able to create anything of value.
Given the way they were able limit Manchester City to very few chances and the vulnerabilities they've shown defending in transition, Everton are very live in this match.
What is maybe a little surprising about Manchester City this season is they are not completely blowing out teams like we have seen in the past. In only three of their 22 Premier League matches have they won by more than two goals, so I think City being favored by two goals here is a tad too high and I like the value on Everton +2 at -110.
Pick: Everton +2 (-110 via BetRivers)
Saturday, Feb. 107:30 a.m. ETUSA Network
Man City Odds-550Everton Odds+1200Draw+700Over / Under2.5 -225 / +170Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
