| Updated:2024-04-30 07:41 Views:215 |
While most of the attention Sunday will be drawn to Arsenal and Manchester City's epic clash at the top of the table, Liverpool and Brighton will serve as an excellent appetizer to kick off Sunday's Premier League doubleheader. The Reds and Seagulls played to a thrilling 2-2 draw in their first meeting of the season, and Brighton has consistently been a difficult opponent for Liverpool to handle in recent years.
The Reds have been dominant on home soil this year – unbeaten in 14 home league matches with 11 wins and a +26 goal difference — and they're close to full health following a return from the international break. Liverpool sits second in the Premier League, but a win Sunday would see them as the league leaders unless Arsenal pulls off an upset road victory.
Mohamed Salah, Luis Díaz and Darwin Núñez are all fit to start for Liverpool on Sunday, and while Alisson Becker and Trent Alexander-Arnold remain out injured, the Reds' attacking firepower will be a real challenge to a Brighton side that has struggled away from home especially.
Let's get to our Liverpool vs Brighton prediction and pick.
LiverpoolLiverpool has the largest delta between home and away expected goal difference of any team in the Premier League. They have a +1.82 xG difference per match at home this year, and that includes dominant wins against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle United, who all sit in the top half of the market power ratings.
Even Manchester City and Arsenal struggled to handle the swarming pressure and overwhelming energy the Reds have played with in front of their home fans. When you consider that Liverpool has also not always had its first choice front three fit, it makes its dominant underlying profile even more impressive at home.
The Reds will have their top three midfield fit and there's a major dynamic athleticism advantage for Alexis Mac Allister, Wataru Endō and Dominik Szoboszlai against Pascal Groß and Billy Gilmour, who have struggled to defend in transition at various points of this season. There's a lot of passing quality in the Brighton midfield to play through pressure, but Brighton is at risk of being overwhelmed when it is out of possession.
BrightonBrighton manager Roberto De Zerbi ruled out João Pedro for this match and said they are targeting a Wednesday return for him. As a result, the Seagulls will be playing without Solly March, Pedro and and Kaoru Mitoma, three of their top four attackers entering the season. The Seagulls have rotated their first XI as much as any team in the Premier League, but there is a noticeable dropoff in overall attacking quality from all of the rotation.
The Seagulls have the second best build-up completion rate in the PL, so I don't expect them to be overwhelmed by Liverpool's pressing intensity in this matchup. Brighton's defense is actually top five in the league in xG allowed per match, which is really more of a commentary on the current state of the league than it is an impressive statement about the quality of Brighton's chance prevention.
The offense has taken a clear step back this year and the lack of continuity and cutting edge from week-to-week action seems to be playing a role. Brighton has no regular players with at least a 0.35 non-penalty xG per 90 production rate, except Ansu Fati who has appeared almost exclusively as a sub. The system of getting the ball into dangerous areas is still quite good — the Seagulls are fifth in final third and box entries and can play through pressure — but the chance creation has regressed from last year's peaks.
Liverpool vs BrightonPrediction
My projections do suggest Liverpool is marginally overvalued in this match, but the Reds' ability to break games open in the second half once playing from the front keeps me away from backing Brighton in any full-game spread markets. The Seagulls have enough ball-playing quality to compete under the pressure that Liverpool will put them under for at least a half, as they did on the road at Arsenal in an eventual 2-0 defeat to the Gunners.
It's hard to see Brighton create many chances in this match given its relatively mediocre offensive numbers away from home and its current injury situation. I'd bet first half Under 1.5 and avoid playing full-game totals or spreads as this match could open up quickly in the second half.
Pick: First Half Under 1.5 (-105)
Saturday, Mar. 309 a.m. ETUSA Network
Liverpool Odds-275Brighton Odds+650Draw+450Over / Under3.5 -125o / +100uOdds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
