| Updated:2024-04-29 04:52 Views:139 |
The Europa League is back for the knockout playoffs to decide who gets into the Round of 16 with some intriguing encounters this week, including Young Boys vs Sporting CP and Feyenoord vs Roma.
Check out our Europa League best bets below.
If you'd like to see our projections for every Europa League match, you can find them here.
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Cunningham: Sporting are the best team in Portugal right now putting up a ridiculous +1.42 xGD per 90 minutes. They are coming off a 5-0 housing of Braga over the weekend, which marked their eighth straight win in all competitions.
The reason they are so good is because of their ability to build up through the first and second phases utilizing overload principles that Roberto De Zerbi and Xabi Alonso use for their sides, basically meaning they always have a 3 v 2 because Sporting want to play the ball into wide area.
Amorim sets his team up in a 3-4-3 and the principles in build up are to build out of the back, but once they beat the first line of pressure, they are looking for vertical passes over the top and they have some deadly attacking players that can cause anybody in this tournament a lot of problems.
Viktor Gyökeres came over from Coventry City in the summer and has been lighting the Portuguese league on fire. He’s already scored 16 goals and has a 0.86 xG + xA per 90 minute rate. He’s perfect for this system because of his pace and intelligence at making runs in behind the defense.
Young Boys basically got results against Red Star Belgrade in the Champions League, but they didn’t do much against RB Leipzig or Manchester City. They’ve put up some pretty pedestrian underlying numbers in the Swiss Super League, only having a +0.33 xGD per 90 minutes.
This number is far too low for how good this Sporting team truly is. I have them projected at -189, so I love the value on them at -110.
Pick: Sporting CP (-110 via DraftKings)
Dabbundo: These two clubs met in the Europa Conference League final in 2022 and in the Europa League quarterfinals last season, but this matchup will be a lot different now that José Mourinho isn’t the manager at Roma. The hiring of Daniele De Rossi has led to four consecutive matches for Roma with at least three goals scored. Roma were known for their elite defense and anemic attack under Mourinho, and by turning the dial toward aggressiveness, I expect to see more cracks in the Roma defense under the pressure of the Feyenoord press in this first leg.
The Italian side has scored multiple goals in all four matches that De Rossi has managed, including four against Cagliari and two against league leaders Inter. Feyenoord are dealing with some key defensive injuries as center back Gernot Trauner is out injured, starting goalkeeper Justin Bijlow will miss the game and Quinten Timber is still dealing with a concussion. Even with a bit of a makeshift back line, Arne Slot has made it clear that Feyenoord will still play their aggressive pressing style and look to create an advantage.
Roma teams of the past would shut this leg down and play for a draw from the opening minute. Under De Rossi, I expect Roma to be a bit more expansive and that should lead to more goals than market expectation at both ends of the pitch. Roma have dealt with attacking injuries at various points of the season, but the combination of Romelu Lukaku and Paulo Dybala should cause issues for Feyenoord’s makeshift back line.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
Thursday, Feb. 15th12:45 p.m. ETParamount+
Young Boys Odds+275Sporting CP Odds-110Draw+280Over / Under2.5-143 / +110Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
Thursday, Feb. 15th12:45 p.m. ETParamount+
Feyenoord Odds+105Roma Odds+260Draw+230Over / Under2.5+100 / -125Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
