| Updated:2024-04-27 10:48 Views:177 |
The Golden Swing concludes in Santiago with more exciting clay-court tennis!
I’ve found value on two of Monday's matchups — Coria vs Molcan and Diaz Acosta vs Cachin.
Read on for my ATP Santiago picks.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
ATP Santiago Odds, PicksFederico Coria (-112) vs Alex Molcan (-112)1:20 p.m. ET
Federico Coria last competed in Rio, losing 6-1, 4-6, 2-6 to eventual-finalist Mariano Navone in the opening round. Coria won just 48% of his service points, getting broken seven times. Coria did win 49% of his return points, breaking six times.
Coria is 10-5 on clay this season, with a 594-341 career-record on the surface. He has recently tried to step up in the court and dictate, especially with his forehand, but the Argentine's strengths lie elsewhere. Coria's speed, defense and counterpunching are world-class and he spreads the court well. Coria's tennis IQ is also very impressive, understanding point construction.
With that said, Coria's serve is still weak, he is underpowered from the baseline and his backhand leaks errors.
Alex Molcan qualified for Santiago without dropping a set, defeating Facundo Bagnis 6-4, 6-4 most recently. Molcan won 68% of his service points, getting broken just once. The Slovak also won 41% of his return points, breaking on three occasions.
Molcan is now 3-2 this year on clay, with a 154-91 mark on the surface as a professional. Molcan plays a tricky, lefty game, utilizing the entire court. Molcan can hit heavy, rolling forehands into precise targets and then, suddenly, flatten out his forehand and rip offensive shots. The Slovak has excellent variety, whether it be his slices, angles or touch shot. It's tough to play Molcan, because he keeps opponents out of rhythm.
However, Molcan's backhand can be a liability and his shot selection can sometimes be wonky.
Molcan playing qualifying gives him an advantage, as he is better-suited for the court conditions, including the altitude. And, in qualifying, Molcan showcased a high level, his baseline game clicking into place. On the other hand, Coria hasn't gotten used to the conditions yet.
But, more importantly, Coria feeds off pace and rhythm from the ground, and Molcan doesn't give consistent pace nor rhythm.
Molcan should keep Coria off-balance with his variety, dragging the Argentine around the court, and hitting into precise targets.
Meanwhile, Coria has nothing to take Molcan out of his comfort zone and the Slovak should be on top of the baseline, directing play.
Pick: Molcan ML (-112 via PointsBet)
Facundo Diaz Acosta (-225) vs Pedro Cachin (+175)5 p.m. ET
Facundo Diaz Acosta fell 6-7(1), 3-6 to eventual champion Sebastian Baez in Rio's round of 16, snapping a six-match winning streak. Diaz Acosta won just 59% of his service points, getting broken twice. In addition, the Argentine won just 31% of his return points, breaking once.
Diaz Acosta recently won his first ATP Tour title in Buenos Aires, with an 8-2 record on clay in 2024. For his career, the Argentine is a strong 176-96 on the surface. Diaz Acosta has a huge, heavy lefty forehand that he manipulates around the court successfully and with controlled aggression. He is fairly solid with his backhand as well, dictating at times from this wing. Diaz Acosta has good variety, excellent defensive skills and counterpunches effectively.
However, the Argentine's backhand can still break down at times.
Pedro Cachin lost 2-6, 6-3, 3-6 to Felipe Meligeni Alves in the first round of Rio. Cachin won just 51% of his service points, getting broken on six occasions. The Argentine also won 40% of his return points, breaking four times.
Cachin is currently on a 10-match losing streak. Though, as a professional, the Argentine does have an excellent 409-238 record on clay. Cachin has a big serve and plays aggressively, most successfully with his forehand. The Santiago (moderate) altitude could help accentuate Cachin's powerful game, but he's been so unreliable from the baseline, spraying unforced errors, that it likely won't matter. Cachin's backhand has been particularly poor and he's not the best athlete.
Diaz Acosta is full of confidence right now, whereas the opposite for Cachin. This should matter in the pressure points of this match.
Diaz Acosta should use his lefty serve and cross-court, lefty forehand to punish Cachin's weaker backhand. And Diaz Acosta has enough forehand topspin that I'm not worried about him losing control in the altitude.
In addition, Diaz Acosta's defense should frustrate Cachin, baiting him into pressing from the ground and, especially in the altitude, causing him to overplay.
Finally, Diaz Acosta's overall Elo rating is 201.9 points above Cachin's and his clay-court Elo is 168.4 points higher.
Pick: Diaz Acosta -3.5 games (+100 via PointsBet)
