| Updated:2024-04-27 03:16 Views:89 |
Over the last three years, Michigan has transformed itself from a team that couldn't win a big game to the bullies of the Big Ten.
The Wolverines have won the Big Ten Title for the last three years and will make their third straight appearance in the College Football Playoff. In 2021, they were happy to make their first CFP appearance in school history.
Michigan is still searching for its first win in the College Football Playoff. However, some may feel that its transformation would not be possible without the assistance of sign stealing.
But Alabama enters the CFP with its share of controversy.
After losing to Texas by 10 in Week 2, Alabama benched quarterback Jalen Milroe. However, after Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson also struggled, head coach Nick Saban returned to Milroe.
The Crimson Tide then ran off 11 straight wins punctuated by its upset of then-No. 1 Georgia. With the victory, Alabama leaped from No. 8 to No. 4 in the final CFP rankings.
The committee's decision ignited outrage in Tallahassee and may lead to a new conference for Florida State altogether. However, would the College Football Playoff feel right without Alabama? The CFP is referred to by some as "The Alabama Invitational" because the Crimson Tide have made it eight of the last 10 seasons.
This game will feature two of college football's biggest brands and most famous head coaches. Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh have clashed just once on the field, a 35-16 Alabama victory in the 2020 Citrus Bowl, and several times off it.
In short, it's a game that deserves a same-game parlay.
Lastly, this parlay is not asking for much, with one touchdown, 240 combined yards of total offense and a close game. Not bad for a +560 bet to begin 2024.
Alabama +7.5 (-265)I don't believe either team wins by more than a touchdown.
I picked Alabama because it improves the total odds of the parlay more than Michigan +7.5 (-370) would. However, Alabama may be the right side to tease up, anyway.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama is 16-6 in bowl games and 9-4 in the CFP.
Meanwhile, Michigan has struggled with long layoffs under Jim Harbaugh, even with byes in the regular season. Additionally, Michigan has lost its last six bowl games under Harbaugh.
Nick Saban, with a month to prepare, is as dangerous as any coach in the sport's history. So, if Michigan does win this year, it likely will not blow Alabama out, especially if it falls behind early again.
Jalen Milroe 200+ Passing Yards (-122)As it prepares for the Rose Bowl, Michigan backup quarterback Alex Orji is playing pretend as Jalen Milroe for scout-team purposes.
Harbaugh has spoken highly of Orji's potential, but he's never trusted Orji enough to allow him to attempt any passes, even in mop-up duty.
While Harbaugh likely didn't intend to disrespect Milroe by comparing him to a backup quarterback, Milroe won't see it that way. He might have a chip on his shoulder.
More importantly, Milroe has consistently passed for 200+ yards with or without the chip. He's averaging 226.5 passing yards per game this year and has cleared 200 in eight of 12 games 鈥?two of the losses were blowouts where he was pulled before the fourth quarter.
Among qualified quarterbacks, Milroe ranks third nationally in yards per attempt (10.4). Milroe is among the best deep ball throwers in the country, averaging 15.8 yards per completion. He shouldn't need many attempts to reach 200 passing yards.
Michigan is second nationally in passing yards per game allowed, but the Wolverines didn't face many elite quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Only two quarterbacks topped 200 passing yards against Michigan this year, but they were Taulia Tagovailoa (247) and Kyle McCord (260).
Additionally, Michigan has allowed 278 passing yards per game across its past two CFP appearances. If Milroe attempts 25 passes, I like his chances of getting 200 passing yards here.
One of the surest things in college football over the last two seasons has been Blake Corum finding the endzone every Saturday.
Corum has scored in 24 of his 25 games over the last two years. In the one game he didn't score, he was injured against Ohio State and received just two carries. He atoned for that with two touchdowns against the Buckeyes this year.
Corum leads the FBS with 24 rushing touchdowns this season. As a result, Corum's touchdowns are often not playable as straight bets, sometimes landing in the -950 range.
But because he's facing Alabama's elite defense, we're getting decent odds here for a parlay piece.
The Tide ranked 16th nationally in scoring defense this year, but their run defense is weaker than usual. Alabama ranks 31st nationally with 125 rushing yards per game allowed and 35th with 14 rushing touchdowns allowed.
In the last four games against Power 5 opponents, Alabama has allowed nine rushing touchdowns, including three against Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
Corum's picked up two touchdowns in each of his past five games, including against elite defenses like Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa.
I also think Corum finds the end zone because of Michigan's loss to TCU last year. The Wolverines lost by six despite failing to score on two possessions inside the TCU's 2-yard line. On the first one, Michigan tried the Philly Special on fourth down and epically failed. On the second try, Michigan fumbled on the 1-yard line.
Those failed opportunities contributed to Michigan frantically playing from behind the rest of the game.
Had Corum been available, he likely would have received ample opportunities to score. When Michigan gets the ball inside Alabama's five-yard line, expect Corum to be the ball-carrier.
Collin Wilson's Betting Card for the College Football Playoff SemifinalsRead nowRoman Wilson Over 39.5 Receiving YardsIn last year's CFP Semifinal loss to TCU, Wilson had five receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown. He's already shown he can perform when the lights are brightest.
This season, he emerged as Michigan's No. 1 receiver.
Wilson has 662 yards and 11 touchdown receptions. Wilson hit this line in eight of his first nine games and has seven games with 50 or more yards.
He's failed to reach 40 receiving yards in his past four games, but the Wolverines' passing attack has stepped back overall.
Against Penn State, Michigan didn't attempt a pass for the final two and a half quarters.
Wilson could've amassed 40 yards against Maryland, but he was injured and held out for the rest of the game after catching his first target for 23 yards.
He came up just short against Ohio State, generating 36 yards and a score.
Against Alabama, Wilson will see two top-notch cornerbacks in Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry.
But I surprisingly like his chances if he's matched up with McKinstry. While McKinstry may be a first-round pick, the knock on him is his speed. Against Texas, Alabama allowed 39-plus yard passes to Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell. Since then, Tennessee, LSU, Auburn and Georgia have generated explosive passing plays.
Wilson is Michigan's fastest receiver and has the speed to get behind McKinstry. Wilson has a 30-yard catch in four games this season and a 20-yard catch in nine games. He could hit this number with only one or two catches.
Georgia vs. Alabama Same Game ParlayAlabama +7.5 (-265)Jalen Milroe 200+ Passing Yards (-122)Blake Corum Anytime Touchdown (-200)Roman Wilson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-114)Parlay Odds: +557 via FanDuel
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